Lorton Precipitation Amounts Jan. 28 - Feb. 3, 2013; Groundhog day track record

It was warm this week.  It was cold this week.  On Saturday (groundhog day), Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, and the forecast based on that was for an early spring.  The National Climatic Data Center did an analysis of the national weather following Phil's predictions, and their analysis was that the groundhog “shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis” - his record since 1988.  What’s the record look like?  No shadow is a forecast of early spring (which should result in above normal temperatures) and shadow is continued winter (and cooler than normal temperatures).  

Punxsutawney Phil's prediction and national temperatures

Year

Shadow

February Temperature Departure

March Temperature Departure

2012

Yes

Above

Above

2011

No

Slightly Below

Slightly Above

2010

Yes

Below

Above

2009

Yes

Above

Slightly Above

2008

Yes

Slightly Above

Slightly Below

2007

No

Below

Above

2006

Yes

Above

Above

2005

Yes

Above

Slightly Above

2004

Yes

Below

Above

2003

Yes

Below

Above

2002

Yes

Above

Below

2001

Yes

Slightly Above

Tied Average

2000

Yes

Above

Above

1999

No

Above

Above

1998

Yes

Above

Below

1997

No

Above

Above

1996

Yes

Above

Below

1995

No

Above

Above

1994

Yes

Below

Above

1993

Yes

Below

Above

1992

Yes

Above

Above

1991

Yes

Above

Above

1990

No

Above

Above

1989

Yes

Below

Above

1988

No

Below

Above

My calculations are that Phil was correct for February and March temperature forecasting less than 50% of the time.  So maybe we can expect the rest of the winter to be kind of like this week - sometimes warm, sometimes cold.  How’s that for a forecast?

Last week and here, my rain gauge in Lorton recorded the following precipitation at 6am on the day indicated for the previous 24 hours: