In the latest discussion of El Niño conditions and models, the Climate Prediction Center has cancelled the El Niño watch issued earlier this year.  As I noted earlier, even though the forecast models continued to say “yes”, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific had other ideas.  The CPC notes that “while the development of El Niño, or even La Niña, cannot be ruled out during the next few months”, neutral conditions are now favored for the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13.  We’ll get some snow, we’ll have some cold, it’ll be winter, but not too much of either.

My rain gauge in Lorton recorded the following precipitation at 6am on the day indicated for the previous 24 hours: