It was warm this week.  It was cold this week.  On Saturday (groundhog day), Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, and the forecast based on that was for an early spring.  The National Climatic Data Center did an analysis of the national weather following Phil's predictions, and their analysis was that the groundhog “shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis” - his record since 1988.  What’s the record look like?  No shadow is a forecast of early spring (which should result in above normal temperatures) and shadow is continued winter (and cooler than normal temperatures).  

Punxsutawney Phil's prediction and national temperatures

My calculations are that Phil was correct for February and March temperature forecasting less than 50% of the time.  So maybe we can expect the rest of the winter to be kind of like this week - sometimes warm, sometimes cold.  How’s that for a forecast?

Last week and here, my rain gauge in Lorton recorded the following precipitation at 6am on the day indicated for the previous 24 hours: